Rise in Novavax Shares by 13% on Monday Explained
In recent weeks, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported a rise in COVID-19 cases nationally, with a 12% increase in hospital admissions for the period of July 16 to 22 [1]. However, the increase in deaths has been minimal, rising by a shade under 1% [1].
Amidst this backdrop, the stock of vaccine manufacturer Novavax (NVAX) has shown signs of volatility. The company's shares increased by more than 13% on the first trading day of the week, but have since experienced declines, with notable drops of around -4.06% on August 11, 2025 [1][5].
Novavax sells Nuvaxovid, a vaccine authorized by the FDA to help prevent COVID-19, currently under the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) designation [2]. It was the last of the coronavirus vaccines to be authorized by the FDA, in July 2022 [2].
Despite the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, there is no direct evidence from the available data that the increase in Novavax's shares is a direct result of the surge. Rather, the performance of the stock appears to be influenced by broader market factors and earnings reports [1][3][4][5].
Novavax reported a strong quarterly earnings beat on August 6, 2025, with $0.62 earnings per share versus an expected loss of $0.07 and revenues of $239.24 million [4]. However, revenue was down 42.4% year-over-year [4]. This mixed financial snapshot, alongside the stock's beta of approximately 1.29 to 2.50, indicates that the stock is sensitive to market and news fluctuations but has not shown a sustained rally in response to COVID-19 developments [1].
The analyst consensus is currently a "Hold" with an average price target near $15.86, suggesting moderate optimism but a cautious outlook [4]. The stock is forecasted by some sources to rise moderately over the next 3 months by around 7.9% within a broad range of $6.93 to $8.48 [1], though longer-term forecasts vary widely with predictions from some models suggesting price targets well above current levels [2].
It is important to note that the performance of the S&P 500 index on the same day only crept up by 0.2% [1]. This suggests that the increase in Novavax's shares is not reflected in the overall performance of the wider market.
Experts are not certain about a renewed COVID offensive, but some believe that most cases won't be severe [1]. If a renewed COVID offensive occurs, vaccine makers like Novavax will be at the forefront of the war against the affliction [1].
References:
[1] Yahoo Finance. (2025). Novavax (NVAX) Stock Report. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVAX/history?p=NVAX
[2] FDA. (2022). Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of Vaccines for Prevention of COVID-19. Retrieved from https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-prevention-covid-19
[3] CNBC. (2025). Novavax Stock Slides as COVID Cases Rise in the U.S. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/novavax-stock-slides-as-covid-cases-rise-in-the-us.html
[4] MarketWatch. (2025). Novavax beats on earnings, but revenue falls short of expectations. Retrieved from https://www.marketwatch.com/story/novavax-beats-on-earnings-but-revenue-falls-short-of-expectations-2025-08-06
[5] Bloomberg. (2025). Novavax Stock Price Today. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NVAX:US
- With the recent increase in COVID-19 cases, there seems to be an opportunity for investing in companies like Novavax, a developer of the Nuvaxovid vaccine, given their potential role in battling future COVID-19 offensives.
- As the science of financial market behavior and health-and-wellness sectors intersect, understanding the balance between broader market factors, earnings reports, and the impact of medical-conditions like COVID-19 on vaccine manufacturers' stocks becomes crucial for financially-savvy investors.
- Despite the minimal increase in deaths related to COVID-19 and the overall market's performance, the volatility of Novavax's stock price suggests the need for closer attention from investors interested in both the medical and finance sectors.
