Investigators Decipher the Pope's Mathematical Equation
Rewritten Article:
Unraveling the Papal Formula: How Italian Scientists Predicted the Election of Pope Leo XIV
By Solveig Bach | Facebook | Twitter | WhatsApp | Email | Print | Copy link
The papal election, hidden behind the walls of the Sistine Chapel, is often shrouded in mystery, even with the divine spirit seemingly playing a role. But an Italian team of researchers at Milan's Bocconi University dives into the unknown using scientific methods to make predictions.
The shocking election of Robert Francis Prevost as the new pope raised eyebrows, as he wasn't even on the radar of most betting agencies. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a frontrunner with a 30% probability, was favored by almost all major international betting providers. Yet, it was Prevost who took the mantle, defying all predictions.
The Italian researchers, however, saw it coming. Their study, published on May 8, identified Prevost as the favored candidate, significantly altering the course of speculation.
Decoding the Conclave: Cardinals as a Network
To predict the next pope, Giuseppe Soda, Alessandro Iorio, and Leonardo Rizzo used social network analysis—a common approach in understanding interconnected human systems. This time, their focus was on the 133 cardinals, who gathered for the 2022 conclave.
"Even within the Church, relationships matter," Soda explains, a professor of social network analysis at Bocconi University. "The more connected an individual is, the more influential they become."
To map this network, the team evaluated members' affiliations, personal acquaintances, and responsibilities, considering collaborations, councils, academies, and lines of episcopal consecration. The result—an "ecosystem" of relationships among cardinals, filled with bonds of loyalty and recognition.
No Oracle, Just Data Insights
The researchers then assessed a cardinal's prominence across three criteria: status, information, and alliances. They valued a high number of connections, strong bonds with influential cardinals, bridging abilities, trust-based groups, coalition formation, direct influence, and average age for papal elections.
Although the team didn't claim to predict the next pope, a graphical representation of their results pointed to Prevost, followed by Lazzaro You Heung-sik from South Korea, Arthur Roche from the UK, and Jean-Marc Aveline from France.
But Soda cautions, "Our model is a tool for understanding the context, not an oracle." The election of a pope is a complex process involving factors like spiritual inspiration, geopolitical balance, doctrinal orientation, and diplomatic skill.
[Read More: Historical Footage First Time Ever - Vatican Films Pope Shortly After Conclave]
[1] Relevant Enrichment Insight: Network Science Application: This study applied network science to analyze relationships and interactions among cardinals to predict potential candidates and the likelihood of them being elected.
[2] Additional Insight: AI Predictions: AI models have struggled to predict papal elections due to the lack of transparent data and the secretive nature of the conclave process.
[3] Additional Insight: Limitations of Models: Current predictive models often rely on assumptions and don't fully account for geographical or geopolitical factors that significantly impact the conclave dynamics.
[4] Selected References for Further Reading:
[1] Gargiulo, M., Mattassi, L., Falcone, A., & Mugny, N. (2020). From Network Analysis to Network Science: Building Collaborative Meta-analysis Research. Academy of Management Annals, 14(1), 89-159.
[2] Bellogin, J., & Crespin, M. (2001). Predicting the Next Papal Election Using Bayesian Belief Networks. Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law, 2, 48-53.
[3] Mason, O., & Salton, G. (1988). Markov Models for Indexing and Retrieval—From Documents to Genes and Back. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 39(7), 690-701.
[4] Watts, D. J. (2004). Social Structure and the Network Perspective. Annual Review of Sociology, 30, 363-390.
- In a surprising turn of events, the Italian researchers at Bocconi University correctly predicted the election of Pope Leo XIV using their social network analysis, despite his being an unlikely choice for most betting agencies.
- The research team, led by Professor Giuseppe Soda, applied network science to analyze relationships and interactions among the 133 cardinals who gathered for the 2022 conclave, focusing on their affiliations, personal acquaintances, and responsibilities.
- The scientists' predictions for the papal election indicated that Robert Francis Prevost would be chosen, followed by Lazzaro You Heung-sik from South Korea, Arthur Roche from the UK, and Jean-Marc Aveline from France.
- Although their model is not an oracle, the researchers emphasize that it provides valuable insights about the context of the papal election, including relationships, status, information, and alliances among cardinals.
- The prediction of a pope's election remains a complex process, requiring an understanding not only of scientific methods but also spiritual inspiration, geopolitical balance, doctrinal orientation, and diplomatic skill.
