Germany's Primary Care Faces 2040 Shortage Crisis in Rural West Areas
By 2040, primary care in Germany could face significant shortages, particularly in rural areas and small towns in West Germany. This is due to factors like retirement, working time preferences, and job changes, not a lack of doctors. The demand for primary care is set to increase by 3% due to demographic reasons. However, no specific studies have been found to assess the impact on primary care up to 2040 or recommend measures to prevent this potential crisis.
Currently, primary care covers 101% of demand. By 2040, this is projected to drop to 87%. East Germany is expected to remain more stable, but West Germany, especially rural areas and small towns, could face severe shortages. Different scenarios predict shortages ranging from under 85% to over 100% supply ratio. To address this, steering 10% of junior doctors to underserved regions could help achieve a comparable level of care nationwide. Alternatively, targeting 3% of junior doctors could prevent ratios below 75%. Efficient care and reduced bureaucracy could free up more time for patients.
By 2040, primary care in Germany could face significant under-supply, particularly in rural areas and small towns in West Germany. While demand increases by 3%, primary care physicians will work three hours less per week on average. Steering junior doctors to underserved regions could help mitigate this issue. However, as of October 2025, no specific studies have been found to assess the impact on primary care up to 2040 or recommend measures to prevent this potential shortage.
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