Atlantic Circulation Potentially Collapses Within Decades Despite Low Emissions
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a vital ocean current for global climate, is currently showing a consistent downward trend, according to deep observations in the North Atlantic since 2021. This trend aligns with model projections, raising concerns about its future state.
The AMOC plays a crucial role in transporting warm waters from the tropics towards Europe and the Arctic, where they cool, sink, and return southward at depth. It regulates European climate, the stability of the tropical rain belt, and sea level in several regions of the world.
A recent study, including researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, warns that in low-emission scenarios, the AMOC will slow dramatically by 2100 and could potentially shut down completely thereafter.
The risk of AMOC collapse is no longer remote or hypothetical, the study concludes. In low-emission scenarios, the risk of collapse is estimated to be 25%, while it rises to 37% in intermediate scenarios and an alarming 70% in high-emission scenarios.
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, stated that what was previously estimated as a 10% risk is now potentially 25% even if the Paris Agreement is met. He reiterates that even a 10% probability of AMOC collapse is unacceptable, and it seems to be much higher now.
Arctic and Greenland ice melt, along with increased precipitation, is injecting freshwater into the ocean, reducing water density and slowing its ability to sink. This process is accelerated by a feedback loop: warming reduces water's ability to cool and sink, causing rainfall accumulation and surface desalination, which further slows the circulation.
Dr. Jonathan Baker of the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK notes that the sample size is small, and more simulations are needed to precisely quantify the risk. However, for scientists, the central message is clear: the only way to reduce the risk is to drastically and rapidly cut carbon emissions.
The study used IPCC standard models, but extended simulations beyond the year 2100 to detect hidden risks, although the authors acknowledge limitations. The future of Atlantic circulation, and with it global climate stability, depends on how quickly the world abandons fossil fuels.
The impact of an AMOC collapse would be catastrophic. It includes a shift in the tropical rain belt, extremely cold winters and intense drought summers in Europe, and a sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States and Europe by up to 50 centimeters more than current projections.
The AMOC is currently at its weakest level in the last 1600 years due to global warming. The tipping point for its collapse could be reached in the next 10 to 20 years, although the total shutdown would take another 50 to 100 years to materialize. The authors of the study on the alarming potential future collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation include researchers from institutions such as the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, including Stefan Rahmstorf.
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