Advocating for nationwide Covid-19 vaccinations over targeted vaccinations for high-risk groups could potentially save thousands of additional lives in the United States.
Researchers from the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub have emphasized the substantial benefits of broadening vaccine recommendations for the updated COVID-19 vaccines this season. Their work, which is public and available for consideration by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and other experts, has been instrumental in guiding vaccine strategies in the US.
The group's projections, published in June, suggest that a universal vaccine recommendation would significantly reduce the disease burden. In a scenario most similar to last season, a universal recommendation was projected to reduce hospitalizations by 11% and deaths by 13%.
Dr. Justin Lessler, a leader with the modeling hub and professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina, stated that their work was not presented at ACIP's June meeting this year. However, the researchers' findings have been influential in guiding vaccine policies, including the expansion of the primary COVID-19 vaccine schedule to school-age children in 2021 and booster recommendations in fall 2022.
The US Food and Drug Administration has already limited approval for this season's shots to adults 65 and older, and younger people who are at higher risk from Covid-19. However, the new analysis emphasizes the "substantial" benefits of broad vaccine recommendations. Recommending updated Covid-19 vaccines only for high-risk individuals would help to avoid an estimated 90,000 hospitalizations and 7,000 deaths.
On the other hand, broadening the vaccine recommendation for all people in the US would save an additional 1,000 lives and prevent an additional 26,000 hospitalizations. The researchers also wrote that the findings suggest substantial indirect benefits of universal vaccination and the continued value of broad vaccine recommendations.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is meeting to make recommendations on who should get the updated Covid-19 shot this season. A study published Thursday in JAMA Network Open shows that sticking to a universal Covid-19 vaccine recommendation has the potential to save thousands more lives than limiting the recommendation to high-risk groups.
Over the past five years, the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has provided nearly 20 rounds of projections estimating Covid-19 disease burden. The forthcoming vote from the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices could restrict vaccine access further.
Notably, the researchers who published the analysis emphasizing the benefits of a broad recommendation for the updated COVID-19 vaccination for the season include Professor Pietro Vernazza, former chief of infectious diseases and hospital hygiene at the cantonal hospital St. Gallen, among others referenced in recent 2025 studies such as the one published in Nature Communications.
Actual epidemiological trends differed from assumptions made in the models last year, but projected deaths aligned closely with the models, creating confidence in the "robust accuracy" of the models among the researchers. As the pandemic continues to evolve, the modeling hub continues to share its results with the CDC and is working to make them more easily available to a broader range of organizations who are providing vaccine guidance.
